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doi:10.2204/iodp.proc.314315316.121.2009

Introduction

Subduction zones like the Nankai Trough, a region of strong earthquakes (M ≥ 8), are especially favorable for study because the entire width (dip extent) of the seismogenic zone ruptures in each great event, so future rupture areas are perhaps more predictable than for smaller earthquakes. The Nankai Trough region is among the best-studied subduction zones in the world. It has a 1300 y historical record of recurring, and typically tsunamigenic, great earthquakes, including the 1944 Tonankai M 8.2 and 1946 Nankaido M 8.3 earthquakes (Ando, 1975; Hori et al., 2004). The rupture area and zone of tsunami generation for the 1944 event are now reasonably well understood (Ichinose et al., 2003; Baba and Cummins, 2005). Land-based geodetic studies suggest that the plate boundary thrust here is strongly locked (Miyazaki and Heki, 2001). Similarly, the relatively low level of microseismicity near the updip limits of the 1940s earthquakes (Obana et al., 2004) implies significant interseismic strain accumulation on the megathrust; however, recent observations of very low frequency earthquake event swarms apparently taking place within the accretionary prism in the drilling area (Obara and Ito, 2005) demonstrate that interseismic strain is not confined to slow elastic strain accumulation.